Word is Albo is finished and Jim Chalmers is next in line for PM. But what no one is saying publicly is whether THOSE rumours about the Treasurer’s past are holding him back…

Attention is turning to the viability or otherwise of Treasurer Jim Chalmers taking over the reins as Labor leader, whether that makes him Prime Minister or Opposition Leader.

One of Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s harshest critics, commentator Niki Savva, has savaged Anthony Albanese, claiming the PM may well have already ‘trashed’ his legacy.

If Albo loses next year’s federal election, ‘he will shoulder much of the blame and his legacy will be trashed,’ she says.

Savva wants the PM to step aside – even if he wins the election – ‘so Labor can regenerate’. ‘He should count his blessings, then gracefully relinquish the job,’ she argues.

That puts Chalmers front-and-centre as the alternative Labor leader, a tag he tried to downplay last week, saying he expects Albo to serve a full second term if re-elected.

But the Treasurer’s Labor colleagues aren’t buying it. One simply remarked ‘yeah, right’ when I put Chalmers’ deflection to her.

But is Chalmers ready to step up if Labor needs him? Or might he be pulled down by a whispering campaign about Chalmers’ past engineered by political opponents who also have designs on Albo’s job?

During Labor’s first term in office, Chalmers has participated in a number of profile pieces, which his colleagues have interpreted as laying the ground work for an eventual tilt at higher office.

Attention is turning to the viability or otherwise of Chalmers taking over the reins as Labor leader as a leading commentator calls on Anthony Albanese (left) to ‘gracefully relinquish the job’

But the 46-year-old Treasurer has at least one self-admitted skeleton in his political closet: his excessive drinking. He claims to have put that behind him to set a better example for the young children he shares with wife Laura.

In a profile piece late last year, Chalmers said it was hard not to get ’emotional’ when discussing his former penchant for booze, but he knew he ‘couldn’t keep drinking six or seven nights a week’ and didn’t want his kids to ‘think that’s what adults do every night’.

The journalist who wrote the Good Weekend article observed there had been talk of Chalmers ‘cutting a bit loose socially around Parliament House’.

Now, I’m not sure exactly what that means, but those eight carefully chosen words sent the media and politics rumour mill into overdrive. They’re exactly the sort of words a journalist chooses when they know something, but don’t quite have enough proof to say it outright.

Regardless of what may or may not have been hinted at, the Treasurer responded by saying the gossip stemmed from him ‘drinking too much’, but he denied that was connected to his decision to give up alcohol.

Fast forward to today and with Labor trailing in the polls and the PM floundering, there is talk that a generational shift to Chalmers might be the recipe for a government revival.

In her column Savva points out that the PM has ‘lost his mojo, his judgment has deserted him and if he can’t summon the discipline to shape up, he should ship out before the election to allow someone else to take on a rampant Peter Dutton’.

Such sentiment points to Chalmers as the alternative leader. Tanya Plibersek lacks factional support, and sits within the same left wing faction Albo does.

With Labor trailing in the polls and the PM floundering, there is talk that a generational shift to Chalmers (pictured with wife Laura on election day in Brisbane on May 21, 2022) might be the recipe for a government revival

Right faction figures such as Chris Bowen and Tony Burke aren’t seen as viable alternative leaders either.

But if Chalmers is the heir apparent, how could he represent a fresh start for Labor when he’s also the architect of its economic strategy? A strategy that has contributed to higher interest rates and inflation which remains stubbornly high compared with similar OECD nations which have already started to enjoy interest rate cuts to help manage cost-of-living pressures.

As Treasurer, Chalmers has presided over two consecutive budget surpluses, a feat the Coalition aimed for but never achieved.

That said, next year’s budget will deliver wall-to-wall red numbers, with large deficits around the forward estimates contributing to record levels of debt that future generations will need to one day payback.

In the meantime, the interest bill alone on that debt has become one of the budget’s most costly line items. Chalmers needs to wear some of the blame for that, having failed to rein in government spending.

In fact, he’s made a virtue of record levels of government spending, arguing that it’s been an important feature of his economic management, helping Australians manage the cost-of-living crisis.

Critics disagree, citing the RBA Governor’s commentary that state and federal government spending is making it harder for the central bank to lower interest rates, despite the sluggish economy registering slow growth.

Assuming whispers about his past doesn’t get in the way of his future, Chalmers could well get the chance to chase a bolder reforming agenda, writes Peter van Onselen

If Albanese can’t climb out of the political quagmire he’s made for himself – having enduring criticism for his failed Voice referendum among other challenges – Chalmers might be called on to lead.

Having put down the grog and cleaned up his act, were Chalmers to take over, he may well up the ante of Labor’s economic reform agenda.

Government insiders claim the only reason amendments to policy areas like negative gearing and capital gains taxes aren’t already on the agenda is because a cautious PM continues to overrule his Treasurer.

That wouldn’t happen if Chalmers became PM.

Prior to entering parliament, he worked as former Labor Treasurer Wayne Swan’s chief of staff. That Labor government sought to introduce a mining tax, among other reforms.

As shadow finance minister leading into the 2019 election, Chalmers made the case for a raft of economic reforms Bill Shorten campaigned for as Labor opposition leader. I understand the now-Treasurer continues to advocate for many of those policies privately, even if he’s required to toe the party line publicly and deny such sentiments now that Albo is running the show.

If the PM is as damaged as Savva claims, perhaps Chalmers will get his chance to shift Labor’s policy settings away from the do-nothing caution Albo has displayed by chasing a bolder reforming agenda.

That might be something worthy of a (non-alcoholic) toast in the Treasurer’s household. Assuming his past doesn’t get in the way of his future.