Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
As Donald Trump takes the helm of US foreign policy, attention is turning to his approach toward the Ukraine conflict and the role of the European Union. Trump appears determined to redraw the map of financial and political responsibilities, shifting the bulk of the burden onto the EU. But what does this new strategy entail, and how will it impact transatlantic relations?
Europe’s Confusion: What is Trump’s Ukraine Policy?
The European Union has expressed confusion over the direction of Trump’s policy on Ukraine. European Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis admitted that the EU has no clear understanding of Trump’s next steps. This uncertainty reflects a broader state of disarray within European institutions, which seem unable to grasp their own strategic interests in the conflict.
The EU’s Past Mistakes:
Since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, the EU has made a series of strategic missteps. Instead of defending its core interests, it engaged in a military and political standoff with Russia without fully considering the consequences. Relying on Ukrainian nationalist forces was a losing bet from the start. These errors have left the EU in a vulnerable position, especially as US policy shifts under Trump.
Trump’s Ambiguous Deal:
Trump appears intent on ending the Ukraine conflict through a deal between Moscow and Kyiv. However, the details of this potential agreement remain unclear. The big question is: Will Trump offer enough concessions to Russia to make negotiations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky viable? This ambiguity only adds to Europe’s anxiety, as it fears bearing the brunt of any deal.
Trump’s Strategy: Making Europe Pay:
Trump’s policy on Ukraine is clear in one respect: shifting the financial and political costs onto the European Union. Regardless of how long the conflict lasts or how it ends, Europe will be the one footing the bill. This approach reflects Trump’s broader vision of redistributing burdens among allies, with Europe shouldering the costs while the US protects its own interests.
Trump’s Personal Ambitions vs. US Interests:
Trump is a leader driven by personal ambition and, at times, vindictiveness. He seeks personal accolades, such as a Nobel Peace Prize, while simultaneously advancing US interests. These interests can be summarized in four key points:
- Weakening Russia as a strategic competitor.
- Maintaining US dominance in the Western world.
- Expanding US energy exports to Europe.
- Ensuring continued demand for the US defense industry.
US Energy and Defense Industries:
Both the US energy and defense sectors stand to gain significantly from Trump’s policies. Lifting sanctions on Russia’s energy sector could be part of a deal with Moscow, but Europe would be pressured to increase imports of US energy. Additionally, European NATO members’ increased defense budgets would benefit the US arms industry.
Europe’s Future Under Trump’s Pressure:
The EU is likely to remain dependent on the US, even as it increases its defense spending. NATO’s structure ensures that the US remains the dominant power, while European nations remain subordinate. This dynamic will only increase Europe’s costs, both in terms of military spending and financial support for Ukraine.
Trump’s policy on Ukraine and the EU is no secret. It has been hinted at repeatedly by Trump and his allies. This strategy aims to advance US interests at Europe’s expense, whether through increased energy exports or bolstering the defense industry. However, it seems the EU has little choice but to accept these terms, as its reliance on the US has become non-negotiable.
